Golf Rantings: February Madness!

Golf Betting Lines

02/20/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite the efforts of Golf Channel and its bracket announcement special Monday morning, the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship pales a wee bit in comparison to the Selection Sunday you'll see in a little less than three weeks.

Yet, this is the strongest field to date on the PGA Tour schedule this season. The top 64 players in the world rankings are eligible and only two passed on the event.

Phil Mickelson, who would go in as the favorite based on his play two Sundays ago at Pebble Beach and a playoff loss at the Northern Trust Open, scheduled a family vacation for this week. That's code for "I don't really want to play in this event that much."

Paul Casey is still hurt and he's a two-time runner-up in this championship. He'd be a contender, but his absence won't be missed too terribly.

The field is set. The matches are penciled in, barring any other withdrawals, so let's analyze the brackets, found at http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=golf- e/stat/MATCHPLAY-BRACKET.htm

BOBBY JONES BRACKET

Luke Donald comes into the tournament as the No. 1 overall seed and the defending champion. He couldn't be overjoyed to draw Ernie Els in the first round, but Els' record in this event borders on pathetic, so Donald should be a safe bet to advance past him.

Otherwise, this features some interesting names and perhaps the most interesting first-round match.

Dustin Johnson is the third seed and will meet Jim Furyk in Round 1. Johnson hits it a mile. Furyk will give up about 35 yards off the tee, but has the pedigree and mettle to take down Johnson, who showed serious short game problems Sunday at Riviera.

Thomas Bjorn is a fascinating name. He knocked out Tiger Woods last year and could make some waves.

This bracket will come down to Donald and upset special Bo Van Pelt. He's the No. 7 seed and will advance with wins over Mark Wilson and Johnson.

Donald will overcome all. His match-game record in both this event and the Ryder Cup is sterling and, frankly, this bracket doesn't do much for me. Johnson is shaky in clutch moments and No. 2 seed Adam Scott has missed a lot of time after having his tonsils taken out.

BEN HOGAN BRACKET

Martin Kaymer is the top seed and last year's runner-up. His game hasn't been sharp, but the biggest potential problem for the German is if it's chilly out and he has to wear a preposterous outfit (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/- cZPiekO71iM/TWlDs_o-LMI/AAAAAAAADqc/G_XQkzKiy-c/s1600/109453888%2Bkaymer.jpg).

Kaymer didn't get a great first-round draw, either. Greg Chalmers won twice in Australia at the end of last year and will get a ton of upset buzz, but Kaymer should be all right.

More than anything in this format, you'll see players who have done well continue to do well. Kaymer is one of them.

He will face Bubba Watson, the No. 5 seed, in the third round and Watson will take him down. Watson and Ben Crane will take longer than my sophomore year of college to complete their first-round match, but Bubba is truly one of the world's best right now. Like Kaymer, he has a strong record in this event and he will represent the Hogan bracket in the semifinals.

Graeme McDowell is a weak No. 3 and could meet Hunter Mahan in the second round if they both win. That would be a rematch of the decisive Ryder Cup bout from two years ago, when McDowell holed a long birdie putt to win 16, then watched Mahan barely make contact with the ball on 17.

I'm going with Mahan to come out of the lower half. No. 2 seed Steve Stricker gives pause for concern. Yes, he won the season opener in Hawaii, but with a balky neck, can he endure a possible six matches in five days?

GARY PLAYER BRACKET

Rory McIlroy is the No. 1 seed and this bracket is sneaky good. Geoff Ogilvy is the No. 12 seed, but a two-time winner. Ian Poulter is No. 6 and won two years ago. Keegan Bradley just showed a ton of marbles in his playoff loss to Bill Haas at Riviera, but the man who will come out of this bracket is the fourth seed.

Sergio Garcia was the best player on the course Sunday at the Northern Trust Open. He will have a tough time against his fellow Spaniard Miguel Angel Jimenez in the first round, but Garcia is in great form.

He'll have a tough paper route to get to the semifinals. Garcia will have to eliminate The Mechanic, either Bradley or Ogilvy, then McIlroy. Poulter will be waiting at the bottom half, but Garcia gets by.

SAM SNEAD BRACKET

And now we get to Tiger Woods.

He is a three-time winner, but has been prone to some hiccups in this tournament. There was Bjorn last year, and anyone remember him losing to Peter O'Malley in his prime?

Woods drew Gonzalo-Fernandez Castano on Wednesday. He's due respect, but Woods will walk by that one. A match-up with Nick Watney or Woods' good buddy Darren Clarke looms. Watney is perhaps the most under-appreciated great player in the game. He will add his name to the list that bested Woods.

This is a great chance for Tiger this week. His match-up singles record since the scandal has been overall very impressive, aside from the Bjorn bumbling of 2011.

He trounced Francesco Molinari at the 2010 Ryder Cup and hammered Aaron Baddeley at the past Presidents Cup. Woods doesn't have to be spectacular to win in match play. He just has to do enough. Sounds foolish, but if Woods gets by Watney (and I don't think he will), he could go on to the semifinals.

Lee Westwood is No. 1 in the bracket, but has a shaky 7-11 record.

Haas is at the bottom of the draw with No. 2 Webb Simpson. My hunch is Watney knocks off No. 10 Martin Laird to get into the last four. Laird hits it a ton and is just the type of unheralded player who always does well in this thing.

SEMIFINALS

Watson and Donald should be a fantastic blend of opposites, not unlike a fine bowl of chocolate and vanilla ice cream. Donald will advance, but he's not going to win it all.

That honor will belong to Garcia.

Very quietly, Garcia has been one of the top five players in the sport since last fall. He won twice in his home soil at the end of last year's European Tour campaign.

This year, he has a pair of top-fives in only three starts. Garcia's final- round 64 at Riviera sealed the deal.

Sergio Garcia, 2012 WGC-Accenture Match Play Champion.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

- The drama at the Northern Trust Open proved that golf can survive without Woods in a prominent role. It will just need Mickelson.

- There was a fascinating Twitter dust-up about Keegan Bradley's constant spitting Sunday. It shouldn't have taken away from the spectacular golf, and it's hard to tell a guy what to do in the pressure of back-nine Sunday golf, but watching a guy spit for five hours can be a little stomach-turning. My hunch is someone says something casually to Bradley that golf courses aren't his private spittoons.

- Movie moment - Oscar picks - "The Artist" for Best Picture, Clooney in the tightest race of the night for Best Actor, Viola Davis for Best Actress, Christopher Plummer for Best Supporting Actor for a movie not one person you know has ever seen and Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress, although I wouldn't count out Melissa McCarthy. Call it the Marisa Tomei theory.

- And, finally, the greatest thing that I have ever, or will ever write is that my son Lukas Blee Brighters was born last Friday. Golf is one of those transcendent things that unite fathers and sons. It did with my father and golf is certainly one of those things I most look forward to teaching my son. Then I'll get him lessons.

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MySportsbook.com Posts Heisman Trophy Odds

With 3,919 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a mere seven interceptions last season, combined with a powerful South Bend Heisman legacy, odds makers at MySportsbook.com have given Notre Dame senior quarterback Brady Quinn the best Heisman Trophy odds at 5-2.

Quinn isn’t the only big man on campus this season.  Oklahoma junior running back and 2004 Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson, listed at 7-2, rushed for a combined 3,033 yards in his first two years as a college player and will give Quinn a run for his money. 

This online sportsbook has also listed Troy Smith, Ohio State senior quarterback, as another strong favorite to win the 72nd Heisman Trophy.  A 7-1 bet, Smith threw for 2,282 yards last season and also led the Buckeyes to a convincing 34-20 victory over Quinn and the Fighting Irish in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.

Current betting odds Heisman trophy are:

Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame)
Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma)
Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State)
Michael Bush (RB, Louisville)
Steve Slaton (RB, West Virginia)
Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville)
Chris Leak (QB, Florida)
Mike Hart (RB, Michigan)
Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio State)
Darius Walker (RB, Notre Dame)
Drew Tate (QB, Iowa)
Marshawn Lynch (RB, Cal)
Kenny Irons (RB, Auburn)
Chad Henne (QB, Michigan)
Kyle Wright (QB, Miami)
Drew Stanton (QB, Michigan State)
Kenneth Darby (RB, Alabama)
JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU)
Drew Weatherford (QB, Florida State)
Blake Mitchell (QB, South Carolina)
Reggie Ball (QB, Georgia Tech)
5-2
7-2
7-1
10-1
10-1
12-1
12-1
18-1
18-1
20-1
30-1
35-1
35-1
40-1
50-1
50-1
60-1
60-1
60-1
60-1
60-1

For complete NCAA Football odds visit MySportsbook.com.

Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.